tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87273502158128007822024-02-18T20:35:33.673-08:00Macro Value InvestmentMarket valuation using fundamental metrics. Forecast of equity index trends and stock evaluation.Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-77849133716280823902013-06-12T09:16:00.001-07:002013-06-12T09:16:33.769-07:00NASDAQ Value Index - Momentum Slowing - Least Dirty Shirt<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpZUgmUV4AK3KeqrBc3XW4-nSK0ONipb7mJVLVD8VNmycNzUHooeMf8f4Qhm7E2K_b7iqBqeRkKNlv7QcVD6iikbHdeFqKRkl59qU8YygUpCr1Oozb5VfBZJJbPX2cJ59Z6RrEaQgxwjk/s1600/NASDAQ+Value+Index+13.06.13.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpZUgmUV4AK3KeqrBc3XW4-nSK0ONipb7mJVLVD8VNmycNzUHooeMf8f4Qhm7E2K_b7iqBqeRkKNlv7QcVD6iikbHdeFqKRkl59qU8YygUpCr1Oozb5VfBZJJbPX2cJ59Z6RrEaQgxwjk/s640/NASDAQ+Value+Index+13.06.13.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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The NASDAQ index value is losing momentum. Is a correction possible? Certainly, however at this stage it remains stronger than S&P500 and Dow Jones - perhaps the least dirty shirt of the three.</div>
Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-86693315795473299652013-06-12T00:38:00.000-07:002013-06-12T00:38:14.973-07:00Pepsico (PEP) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Pepsico (PEP) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147315847/Pepsico-PEP-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Pepsico (PEP) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147315847/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_11198" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-36035088456351917622013-06-12T00:26:00.000-07:002013-06-12T00:26:53.362-07:00International Business Machines (IBM) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View International Business Machines (IBM) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147314495/International-Business-Machines-IBM-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >International Business Machines (IBM) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147314495/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_75854" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-74488318007418324892013-06-12T00:14:00.000-07:002013-06-12T00:14:45.406-07:00Chevron Corporation (CVX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Chevron Corporation (CVX) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147312310/Chevron-Corporation-CVX-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Chevron Corporation (CVX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147312310/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_76835" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-47473873079305146552013-06-11T23:29:00.000-07:002013-06-12T02:11:18.465-07:00Wal-Mart (WMT) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Wal-Mart (WMT) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147309419/Wal-Mart-WMT-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Wal-Mart (WMT) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147309419/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_21421" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-79946770907496557022013-06-11T23:25:00.000-07:002013-06-12T02:12:03.509-07:00United Technologies (UTX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View United Technologies (UTX) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147308899/United-Technologies-UTX-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >United Technologies (UTX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147308899/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_10542" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-24780803104462039712013-06-11T23:08:00.000-07:002013-06-11T23:08:26.767-07:00Procter & Gamble (PG) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Procter &amp; Gamble (PG) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147307070/Procter-Gamble-PG-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Procter &amp; Gamble (PG) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147307070/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_18931" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-8270846043119413422013-06-11T22:57:00.003-07:002013-06-11T22:57:54.131-07:00Pfizer (PFE) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Pfizer (PFE) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147306019/Pfizer-PFE-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Pfizer (PFE) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147306019/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_54738" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-35801741329257330222013-06-11T22:31:00.000-07:002013-06-11T22:31:38.906-07:00Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147302469/Johnson-Johnson-JNJ-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147302469/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_57181" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-42007656034520605682013-06-11T22:18:00.000-07:002013-06-11T22:18:43.176-07:00Home Depot (HD) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Home Depot (HD) Value Dashboard (NYSE) on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147301003/Home-Depot-HD-Value-Dashboard-NYSE" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Home Depot (HD) Value Dashboard (NYSE)</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147301003/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_68443" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-5365618266787128452013-06-11T22:10:00.001-07:002013-06-11T22:10:39.122-07:00Coca-Cola (KO) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Coca-Cola (KO) Value Dashboard on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147299964/Coca-Cola-KO-Value-Dashboard" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Coca-Cola (KO) Value Dashboard</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147299964/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_95878" width="100%" height="2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-25723656749953438952013-06-11T21:08:00.000-07:002013-06-11T22:10:49.033-07:00Walt Disney (DIS) Value Dashboard (NYSE)<p style=" margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"> <a title="View Walt Disney DIS Value Analysis Dashboard on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/147289136/Walt-Disney-DIS-Value-Analysis-Dashboard" style="text-decoration: underline;" >Walt Disney DIS Value Analysis Dashboard</a></p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/147289136/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&show_recommendations=false" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="undefined" scrolling="no" id="doc_7044" width="100%" height= 2300" frameborder="0"></iframe>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-49848531881395549362013-06-04T08:25:00.000-07:002013-06-04T08:35:08.630-07:00German DAX - Beware a Correction (20% possible)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMqRugEKhgfe46WhaPxAw0YwcO3tU9Ifd10srM0PVTTgD8DFAFyqRVZLRFa10qDwqnOmw_sG0Nja-G7TZps2yOVN_EzhMqHeMQ1bKaR291b6gDDC20jixaVvK5mcwGa-lKxhL66rzJROI/s1600/DAX+Value+06.2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMqRugEKhgfe46WhaPxAw0YwcO3tU9Ifd10srM0PVTTgD8DFAFyqRVZLRFa10qDwqnOmw_sG0Nja-G7TZps2yOVN_EzhMqHeMQ1bKaR291b6gDDC20jixaVvK5mcwGa-lKxhL66rzJROI/s1600/DAX+Value+06.2013.PNG" /></a></div>
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<br />Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-36839702547471238122013-06-04T05:56:00.000-07:002013-06-04T05:56:18.237-07:00S&P500 Valuation: Downside Risk<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcUdHxfX5MGHOVy7UOTT-4RiXYfVHaNhUsf8ij1Fcbdukcmu4hKyXIEGDJuOr-eUjnQbEJlNwSWAmtkivqlbnpswQBccTOKvfdIA8Y1JNDessFZ9tm9AIyspLzMykM3ugSPrFfmD4HJo/s1600/S&P500+Value+06.2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTcUdHxfX5MGHOVy7UOTT-4RiXYfVHaNhUsf8ij1Fcbdukcmu4hKyXIEGDJuOr-eUjnQbEJlNwSWAmtkivqlbnpswQBccTOKvfdIA8Y1JNDessFZ9tm9AIyspLzMykM3ugSPrFfmD4HJo/s1600/S&P500+Value+06.2013.PNG" /></a></div>
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In recent periods, the S&P500 has exceeded value targets. Combined with the fact that there is a downward trend in the metrics, there is an implied strong possibility for a correction in the near term.Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-34963818175408149482013-06-03T09:10:00.001-07:002013-06-03T09:18:41.701-07:00Aussie Banks Valuation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqaPK_BJeqkiuQsYJYCHH_l9qLfEcnNv8Xv2Xpn7N1ghpE7l8Srlqk4hsIAyCfQALyScNjJl2_D3LXcegdUFvSeWcq71D5lnhfjAnBotLrZiEboiU1eqjqAZNek0aMpAiJzZ8T-XmKXl0/s1600/Aussie+Banks+Value+June+2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqaPK_BJeqkiuQsYJYCHH_l9qLfEcnNv8Xv2Xpn7N1ghpE7l8Srlqk4hsIAyCfQALyScNjJl2_D3LXcegdUFvSeWcq71D5lnhfjAnBotLrZiEboiU1eqjqAZNek0aMpAiJzZ8T-XmKXl0/s640/Aussie+Banks+Value+June+2013.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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All the major Aussie banks (CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB) appear to have reached and surpassed full value. Without any changes to the underlying metrics and earnings momentum, we could see a reasonable price correction. Any deterioration in bank profits is likely to feed straight through to share price declines.</div>
Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-28320993270170793302013-06-03T09:00:00.002-07:002013-06-11T23:42:16.762-07:002012 ASX Forecast: Review<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyaWHZOVAALowKD8GoDKMzlf91uWYqU8-ALCpacLmzMhXDsxeQjAI3X6_T-Ba2SXqQqVQfpbqA6MYbCJYf1qaHd5kaVcK7_mU9AkGi_3y4-WpEMPl6u1gaYcUSBGFCNQTb0Bafv4sF62s/s1600/2012+ASX+Forecast.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyaWHZOVAALowKD8GoDKMzlf91uWYqU8-ALCpacLmzMhXDsxeQjAI3X6_T-Ba2SXqQqVQfpbqA6MYbCJYf1qaHd5kaVcK7_mU9AkGi_3y4-WpEMPl6u1gaYcUSBGFCNQTb0Bafv4sF62s/s640/2012+ASX+Forecast.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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It took a bit longer to head above 5000 than expected, but the forecast made in Jan 2012 was very accurate.</div>
Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-72165283000413827112013-06-03T08:22:00.000-07:002013-06-11T23:42:47.584-07:00ASX XJO Value Update - Downside Risk<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXFVUOkZ28y4Wrp10xA4ck7_mIOrr-baIFwUcufJVS208-UKixN2fkG3uwltCQrGEtosPcQe-7t-JpzVm30vQ0hkvjtd_1o0MJE7VFBN4Uly2_1j47yqVtzXBiaSXJd6u7lU-oMq5iI3o/s1600/ASX+Value+06.2013.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXFVUOkZ28y4Wrp10xA4ck7_mIOrr-baIFwUcufJVS208-UKixN2fkG3uwltCQrGEtosPcQe-7t-JpzVm30vQ0hkvjtd_1o0MJE7VFBN4Uly2_1j47yqVtzXBiaSXJd6u7lU-oMq5iI3o/s1600/ASX+Value+06.2013.PNG" /></a></div>
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Possible downside to 4500 or -8%.Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-507144111284110592013-06-02T10:31:00.001-07:002013-06-04T04:24:04.578-07:00Dow Value Update 2013: Value is Priced In - 15% Correction PossibleIn my 2012 equity outlook this is what I said:<br />
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<span class="a"><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">"Fair value is trending up strongly, with the Dow Jones still appearing
cheap, and is highly likely to </span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;">indicate a continued
equity market rally from</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"> <span style="display: inline-block;"></span></span><span class="a"></span><span style="background-color: white; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: medium;">here." </span></span></span> </div>
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<span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-color: white; border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><a href="http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/2012-equity-market-outlook-summary.html" target="_blank">http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/2012-equity-market-outlook-summary.html</a></span></span></span></div>
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This is the first update since early 2012.</div>
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All three metrics suggest that the Dow and, by association, the US equity markets are fully priced and have the potential for a correction. Whilst the current circumstances do not yet appear to be any where near 2008 levels, I would suggest that a 15% correction is definitely possible. This would imply a price target of just under 13,000 from the current level of 15,115. </div>
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Timing is uncertain, but a move to between 13,000 <b><span style="font-size: x-small;">[-14%] </span></b>to 14,000 <b><span style="font-size: x-small;">[-7.3%]</span></b> is highly possible between now and the next three months.</div>
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<b>Caution at this point.</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Note that current value metrics are still being updated from 2012 and may be adjusted or improved.</i></span></div>
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Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-20554918404935051722012-01-26T07:19:00.000-08:002012-01-26T07:23:01.144-08:00A short-term dip to come before the bull?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-size: large;">ASX S&P200 XJO 4000 before 5000</span></span></div>
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I have been developing two fair value market indicators: one based on forecast earnings and the other based on economic indicators. They both are very useful for me in being able to be able to determine market conditions and likely trends. Both these indicators are in continuous development and one area that I had not previously explored was the short-term efficacy. Until now.</div>
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Contrary to my prior thoughts about a coming bull run in the markets, I'm not sure if the timing is right. The reason is that the indicators also appear useful in providing guidance over shorter periods. Whilst the longer term direction is certainly up, short-term is decisively down - or at least flat.</div>
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Is this a case of trying to peer too far around the corner? Perhaps. We shall see. However the indicators are accurate enough to give me caution for now (although I remain positive on gold and gold equities).</div>
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<b>US Fed versus Greece</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXgY9dm5CYm_FXzbv5hKfhATJ7vhprAoT2niRl6_hgitMmOma2OVyLxCT1xm2WMq_d_1110Eq4AV6a_0TRTMIK2MR0DLD-tfYeiCauBKn4pwTjU8aC_jxRIg4GDeWUt7lDnQHT1NnqSmA/s1600/watch+out+fed+bernanke.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
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Markets rallied on the US Federal Reserve FOMC statement last night, with the announcement of continued low rates and the market's assumption that further monetary easing is on the way. In the near term we have Greece attempting settle with bond holders. We have rumblings from Portugal and Spain. Perhaps there is enough there to dislodge the current upswing for now.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">The Scenario</span></b></div>
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<i>*Note: these short-term indicators are newly developed so this is primarily a theoretical exercise at this stage.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A bounce down towards, or below, 4000 in the near term.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUnQkkglTDdJw0RU3-b1FHx19Y41KXTCq2t6a9NudmIklnf755w7SiMZsajBOPtwdVKNH1b0OjpurjaN1Y4HMrXBOgonU2vItKrqFx5Y8luq1OlCaS9lqnkEkKe3evI5DCGa9pxuUqQh0/s1600/Forecast+Earnings+Fair+Value+Long+Term+Trend.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUnQkkglTDdJw0RU3-b1FHx19Y41KXTCq2t6a9NudmIklnf755w7SiMZsajBOPtwdVKNH1b0OjpurjaN1Y4HMrXBOgonU2vItKrqFx5Y8luq1OlCaS9lqnkEkKe3evI5DCGa9pxuUqQh0/s1600/Forecast+Earnings+Fair+Value+Long+Term+Trend.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Whilst we could see markets run up a little further from here, the indicators are suggesting that it is unlikely. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-h1EZNtZRpDDmIJG7J1QlhPqobSlMKt0dMCi63Pzvy5QsBHo7UR_0nAbK6vpa_ikxphDSJZfT0XLyJ4bOidCg87Q4BztU_TBPPPUwUHV8_0udhLzmEGwBu5NjJqaSVYCrSZSaD4RT5gY/s1600/Short+Term+Econ+Model+%2526+Fair+Value.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-h1EZNtZRpDDmIJG7J1QlhPqobSlMKt0dMCi63Pzvy5QsBHo7UR_0nAbK6vpa_ikxphDSJZfT0XLyJ4bOidCg87Q4BztU_TBPPPUwUHV8_0udhLzmEGwBu5NjJqaSVYCrSZSaD4RT5gY/s1600/Short+Term+Econ+Model+%2526+Fair+Value.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The short-term economic model is suggesting either a flat or down market starting very soon and potentially bouncing later in February.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieJyb8421zxulGaDBNVpyM-CO8Nl2X0cnXrcU6ICfgAxcFf5TsQCO9hfizgmueqLFsmWzlPQhDPcqbzZKqTUCSmtwKRVbZNkMEob3e79bT0LzcZrPsnEqQDDK6ETMB7b6E_071oILZgbM/s1600/Short+Term+Econ+Model.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieJyb8421zxulGaDBNVpyM-CO8Nl2X0cnXrcU6ICfgAxcFf5TsQCO9hfizgmueqLFsmWzlPQhDPcqbzZKqTUCSmtwKRVbZNkMEob3e79bT0LzcZrPsnEqQDDK6ETMB7b6E_071oILZgbM/s1600/Short+Term+Econ+Model.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The short-term fair value model is also suggesting a dip soon.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEira9LzIZofsylYOgFaqqYs9O5uS64Ye0S4ic8GjCi_L3e-oIFwUEVqnWBj9_Ua_0prd8LOZNd_Kr_YyCcLHmEABYW2iEN2WxOcpA9evC36J0_44ZFQy68sMcc4PnXC12qCwuBFA9tyQyE/s1600/Short+Term+Fair+Value.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEira9LzIZofsylYOgFaqqYs9O5uS64Ye0S4ic8GjCi_L3e-oIFwUEVqnWBj9_Ua_0prd8LOZNd_Kr_YyCcLHmEABYW2iEN2WxOcpA9evC36J0_44ZFQy68sMcc4PnXC12qCwuBFA9tyQyE/s1600/Short+Term+Fair+Value.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Whilst toying around with short-term indicators and forecasts, I noticed that the long term economic indicator is consistently too early. This is how it looks when the indicator is delayed by around 6 months.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRFW6mwYiUimir2Fuu-m60H2E7qsr_rKdhSrdLDfloYpP8IhkZERFmszX_AHFQ7XGJweC1pTCkY5jedN872DELMK6PbuY7GzRL7tPIMb36f9F3xa3i2xhFKLw1vX73vDUu39duC6R_to8/s1600/Long+Term+Econ+Model+-+Delayed.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRFW6mwYiUimir2Fuu-m60H2E7qsr_rKdhSrdLDfloYpP8IhkZERFmszX_AHFQ7XGJweC1pTCkY5jedN872DELMK6PbuY7GzRL7tPIMb36f9F3xa3i2xhFKLw1vX73vDUu39duC6R_to8/s1600/Long+Term+Econ+Model+-+Delayed.PNG" /></a> </div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">And how it looks over the next six months...</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgloguc0HoVGkdghSPRmf_YkM68gJaaBt8ehvCuDO7ZNahO_-1HjjMu68bDImaFxJ-OTKXDvZ-5OI5L7X66_IGmcIKCXDllD7Kr36vH9ucOIOocQwi_LE0HmwX2eHYmUCAIPczCAWMHCps/s1600/Long+Term+Econ+Model+-+Delayed+Forecast.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgloguc0HoVGkdghSPRmf_YkM68gJaaBt8ehvCuDO7ZNahO_-1HjjMu68bDImaFxJ-OTKXDvZ-5OI5L7X66_IGmcIKCXDllD7Kr36vH9ucOIOocQwi_LE0HmwX2eHYmUCAIPczCAWMHCps/s1600/Long+Term+Econ+Model+-+Delayed+Forecast.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Bringing us back to the first graph, illustrating the potential scenario...</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguHro5ZhDzWKAL4hTrcF-wNm3mZldmpf1cmpcJq-ZD0BkEETHILQgOKWxshoNFBU3uIhsFnMaoA5wMjeDxpoNAf08O4-ibD1uhZrcjrE0ic6l-N98zN3tNirJG2_KF5d1_TTGeoHlj340/s1600/Scenario.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguHro5ZhDzWKAL4hTrcF-wNm3mZldmpf1cmpcJq-ZD0BkEETHILQgOKWxshoNFBU3uIhsFnMaoA5wMjeDxpoNAf08O4-ibD1uhZrcjrE0ic6l-N98zN3tNirJG2_KF5d1_TTGeoHlj340/s1600/Scenario.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Note that the delayed economic indicator model shown here is a long term directional tool, which does not accurately forecast absolute price levels, but it does appear to work well in picking up the trend.</span></div>
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<br /></div>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-75082207499716349472012-01-24T19:50:00.000-08:002012-01-24T19:53:39.543-08:00ASX Stock Highlight: Medusa Mining (MML)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
With a large correction since September from over $8 per share to recent lows of $4.50 per share, Medusa's share price has taken a big hit. Excellent value at current prices. Potential break out from down-trend.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg9D4oDZsQli1-b6gA-ecWb1fEVb0M7-xPwWDF9pc52GnNa3g4NVg_oTHBmjPyM20RDV61Ou2yQJS_u7BqimXwovU5Izhgss0wdxyuZbwPnJAbutriFgri9vPQzNPF-3WRim39kfrPcxA/s1600/MML+25.01.12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg9D4oDZsQli1-b6gA-ecWb1fEVb0M7-xPwWDF9pc52GnNa3g4NVg_oTHBmjPyM20RDV61Ou2yQJS_u7BqimXwovU5Izhgss0wdxyuZbwPnJAbutriFgri9vPQzNPF-3WRim39kfrPcxA/s1600/MML+25.01.12.PNG" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8Z_9nAVXpMwFJmGG40NaJumvJC_KAmdR9FnJqgQ9fvb_Gzml15POScSzsysaSmGIMu2L5EkuQn-aTqld-1E9I8HJ6Yc6aUjGu4sqVDEf9z1oTmeVopX0d2S7t20wLLafUl7QdoNbw8Qs/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_17542_image069.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8Z_9nAVXpMwFJmGG40NaJumvJC_KAmdR9FnJqgQ9fvb_Gzml15POScSzsysaSmGIMu2L5EkuQn-aTqld-1E9I8HJ6Yc6aUjGu4sqVDEf9z1oTmeVopX0d2S7t20wLLafUl7QdoNbw8Qs/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_17542_image069.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhScPejzIcYmRKkAgqWLym-MaWDst1L0Oodgu6sXFPKhAIpTy0r2uKx0whP_AJErFIfnhuKFftiHQaBvmcQo32W84CkQL5ZX-1wcKD-vCEJ_eeh0niiX6G8sC1cB3DOF9TvNVnt3AGjamg/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_32035_image021.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhScPejzIcYmRKkAgqWLym-MaWDst1L0Oodgu6sXFPKhAIpTy0r2uKx0whP_AJErFIfnhuKFftiHQaBvmcQo32W84CkQL5ZX-1wcKD-vCEJ_eeh0niiX6G8sC1cB3DOF9TvNVnt3AGjamg/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_32035_image021.png" /></a></div>
<br />Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-4738354596422072402012-01-23T19:07:00.000-08:002012-01-23T19:14:10.325-08:00Mt Gibson MGX: Trade Update 24 Jan 2012<div style="text-align: justify;">
Whilst I still see more upside in MGX, it has run up very quickly since an entry point of $1.18 on 10 Jan, and is up 21% in just two weeks. From a technical stand-point, it appears to be losing momentum, and as such I have exited at $1.43 with the view to buy in again at a lower level.</div>
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<b>Entry price: $1.18</b><br />
<b>Exit price: $1.43</b><br />
<b>Gain: 21.2%</b><br />
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Remains on watch-list.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrUacs0-6gcY4te7NoQxyFU8jxz5GErC8-J-h2O2VQLRaOrD3yVT9DBugxDKXlLIcuJurfaeWqsfAxmsYv0FuESBlgVUrVyr4gvW68WJFI90uPPXuvn3Hak_Wp-xftwaaN1ysuHCLlY8Q/s1600/MGX+trade+update+24.01.12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrUacs0-6gcY4te7NoQxyFU8jxz5GErC8-J-h2O2VQLRaOrD3yVT9DBugxDKXlLIcuJurfaeWqsfAxmsYv0FuESBlgVUrVyr4gvW68WJFI90uPPXuvn3Hak_Wp-xftwaaN1ysuHCLlY8Q/s1600/MGX+trade+update+24.01.12.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-90516044774376141102012-01-23T05:35:00.000-08:002012-01-23T05:42:20.097-08:00ASX Stock Highlight: St Barbara Ltd (SBM)<div style="text-align: justify;">
St Barbara released their quarterly today with gold production up 18% to a quarterly record 83,615 ounces, at consolidated group cash operating costs of $844 per ounce. The cash balance is up 47% to $110 million. </div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;">Current mine line forecast at 10 years</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Substantial additional exploration opportunities</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Annualised production now at 334,000 ounces of gold</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Operating cash margin of $744 per ounce</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">No debt</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Stable gold price outlook</li>
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St Barbara now looks very stable, with ample cash and strong financials, it appears to offer great value for an Australian-based mid-tier gold producer. With substantial selling from Van Eyk over recent times, there is a good chance that buying pressure will return.</div>
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Entry price today: <b>$2.13</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMkWWz8H02brmQPiRpwfwH-9qCKFW1wCB_53jb_tmYNKgEfT-oA66RdJJuGuxmASe00qzTL4AFCySmEIgegnq2STjnUsfeBw0Mm0-RHOuFXTGVd3uWbksEBwEHMrdc-aofKv99WQu_unc/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_25903_image071.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMkWWz8H02brmQPiRpwfwH-9qCKFW1wCB_53jb_tmYNKgEfT-oA66RdJJuGuxmASe00qzTL4AFCySmEIgegnq2STjnUsfeBw0Mm0-RHOuFXTGVd3uWbksEBwEHMrdc-aofKv99WQu_unc/s1600/Capital+Focused+Research+Report+23.01.12_25903_image071.png" /></a></div>
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<br />Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-68488542778821945582012-01-17T21:35:00.000-08:002012-01-17T21:35:33.595-08:00Dow Jones Earnings Overview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: #990000; font-size: x-large;">DOW EARNINGS OVERVIEW</span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCZoKOGY3QB8nfOZdDOfVtyspkA00Qzx1r-Kn434NE4VY3gDq-NHmD3N4J18eN4e40Gjhh0-9DIgt0T6JfcPv1DKy3NNPafmmfHnlAj7yPHN2Pg349GIuHkqdaVfEX7mTCZe9QcCu-eEw/s1600/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image040.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCZoKOGY3QB8nfOZdDOfVtyspkA00Qzx1r-Kn434NE4VY3gDq-NHmD3N4J18eN4e40Gjhh0-9DIgt0T6JfcPv1DKy3NNPafmmfHnlAj7yPHN2Pg349GIuHkqdaVfEX7mTCZe9QcCu-eEw/s640/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image040.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dow earnings margins are expected to improve. Revenue per share is up, earnings are up and dividends are up.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitwvpJVjCO1FPu6WUDhU47uoUttD9AcWIzlDbfXOR-Vp0aBz5jq-aOiRbONo0uX65dVCJzYxpkdqmKdVVBnk5ZMdqPr-yo4kK57GzLA96qOYyUQnGx7_Bp_y2COXDGPvb9WtiU8jkFFEw/s1600/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image041.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitwvpJVjCO1FPu6WUDhU47uoUttD9AcWIzlDbfXOR-Vp0aBz5jq-aOiRbONo0uX65dVCJzYxpkdqmKdVVBnk5ZMdqPr-yo4kK57GzLA96qOYyUQnGx7_Bp_y2COXDGPvb9WtiU8jkFFEw/s640/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image041.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: center;">Forecast earnings have declined, however there remains substantial room for movement in estimates.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgydsTA5-QOeGua0DSGsD5sgi0epqf-YfZU-8-Nf6NekKAk18KgP_QNT0fecxG1hYAv_T2ZGjLHWebFcSX6Z75H8QAVjMi71e2NTYEIubNHy4ayBll87KjfD1ppQUneV1efTP6RP6rePzw/s1600/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image042.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgydsTA5-QOeGua0DSGsD5sgi0epqf-YfZU-8-Nf6NekKAk18KgP_QNT0fecxG1hYAv_T2ZGjLHWebFcSX6Z75H8QAVjMi71e2NTYEIubNHy4ayBll87KjfD1ppQUneV1efTP6RP6rePzw/s640/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image042.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: center;">Earnings estimates have been consistently conservative by the time they are announced. On average they have been 5% less than actual earnings.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXuumsKoZYvNCUi9qmeT8wbNjHpq-6kYIh6NwUzJyiSNZ4Xyq_whAIs9n8hcr-2cFGDu_UklOiHBY4nD0bWoobfq2cWnThOsyRHZlUGiEuKlHNVnko4_mpqnoIsThyphenhyphenjeU8uWtAf7iQ-Y8/s1600/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image043.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXuumsKoZYvNCUi9qmeT8wbNjHpq-6kYIh6NwUzJyiSNZ4Xyq_whAIs9n8hcr-2cFGDu_UklOiHBY4nD0bWoobfq2cWnThOsyRHZlUGiEuKlHNVnko4_mpqnoIsThyphenhyphenjeU8uWtAf7iQ-Y8/s640/Dow+Jones+1.11.11_31508_image043.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Economic indicators are bullish, indicating a continued growth in earnings per share at a rate greater than consensus forecast.</span></div>
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<br />Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-29847795427591272952012-01-17T06:51:00.000-08:002012-01-17T06:51:10.953-08:00ASX Fair Value Update 18 Jan 2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSztH7bZT-TXSRkfa4J2ieIP3w1Jo7VufYimSagZM5aq06XrjupShT9NifkRAhxdLccqxp5egqR5qiVPyWulud-yUJV9AQhpTzQez60VAfJx4eHrElmbRnoM8K_F2n1IBUkz8vTmVlX1A/s1600/ASX_logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSztH7bZT-TXSRkfa4J2ieIP3w1Jo7VufYimSagZM5aq06XrjupShT9NifkRAhxdLccqxp5egqR5qiVPyWulud-yUJV9AQhpTzQez60VAfJx4eHrElmbRnoM8K_F2n1IBUkz8vTmVlX1A/s1600/ASX_logo.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-size: large;"><b>Markets are turning bullish - Indicators show a long way to go</b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxhNox7WK37JPe-dfgfangH9fuLo639GOAyhSslRdXL9bjeajUDe48S2afO_9Gi3MRS-1buYieJY2TTqfs97WvzajP7NVWHdTpwCWbSVna1FCyscJgmRGSUd2b5tpirktQkKijWnRCOkk/s1600/XJO+18.01.12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxhNox7WK37JPe-dfgfangH9fuLo639GOAyhSslRdXL9bjeajUDe48S2afO_9Gi3MRS-1buYieJY2TTqfs97WvzajP7NVWHdTpwCWbSVna1FCyscJgmRGSUd2b5tpirktQkKijWnRCOkk/s640/XJO+18.01.12.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Very strong moves up seen in the S&P 200 (XJO) over the past month, looking increasingly like a new bullish up-trend.</div>
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><u>MacroValue Economic Indicator</u></b></span><br />
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<i>Reminder: This is a directional indicator and the fair value target is an indication of strength, but not a hard target.</i></div>
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Very strong economic signals showing through.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBhEMHOYWNEjtfxNwCGPzpxAYGrMwALV1Xn8OgS3kfGlnOXcsnvZ2od2f15mBr0aBzzU8bDpchPX9qJ53cedCNgo_dWSATCEmQW1BaJaa669N5dQ8Juox9QeSLn0P2dkwOwchq6YSyBDc/s1600/ASX+10.1.12_17270_image008.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBhEMHOYWNEjtfxNwCGPzpxAYGrMwALV1Xn8OgS3kfGlnOXcsnvZ2od2f15mBr0aBzzU8bDpchPX9qJ53cedCNgo_dWSATCEmQW1BaJaa669N5dQ8Juox9QeSLn0P2dkwOwchq6YSyBDc/s640/ASX+10.1.12_17270_image008.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2I93mzFXamfBEoD7Phjk5bwcZLO-yWrHV8gs_6rh0J0PCRGsi0htTiPcMxwHu6iyOW31rF3lO26SVjQ7zm07rdigfuhtDhYVMG4KVmvy10bDRJ_EbyDPjpm8xMCfZe6cNsm1T25EOcY/s1600/ASX+10.1.12_17270_image009.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA2I93mzFXamfBEoD7Phjk5bwcZLO-yWrHV8gs_6rh0J0PCRGsi0htTiPcMxwHu6iyOW31rF3lO26SVjQ7zm07rdigfuhtDhYVMG4KVmvy10bDRJ_EbyDPjpm8xMCfZe6cNsm1T25EOcY/s640/ASX+10.1.12_17270_image009.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large;"><u>MacroValue Consensus Fair Value</u></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK7SI_sMq9cttLjW72_utNOm0nY9GZbpgdwXgtlzM8cObdJbqYA0YWWWVZyUnZWQOvV1-9NvAX1oj1wGRkuBQpb0a49X7q_vcJfcL8EyklEdoXK1jtX5eP6g35gWi6_En2LO7Q9gA0IHI/s1600/ASX+3.1.12_354_image006.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK7SI_sMq9cttLjW72_utNOm0nY9GZbpgdwXgtlzM8cObdJbqYA0YWWWVZyUnZWQOvV1-9NvAX1oj1wGRkuBQpb0a49X7q_vcJfcL8EyklEdoXK1jtX5eP6g35gWi6_En2LO7Q9gA0IHI/s640/ASX+3.1.12_354_image006.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Consensus earnings expectations continue to support a rally. Given the economic signals are in place, it is highly likely that, in aggregate, expectations are met. Whilst this is a moving target, the first half of 2012 is shaping up nicely for a rally.</div>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8727350215812800782.post-78851294647458778022012-01-16T05:59:00.000-08:002012-01-18T00:20:20.957-08:00ASX Value List Jan 2012<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9pIdXnGbWkPcsHEwDADVNPM_oPXhP-jen4VKQtoiUlPxYNt-tB36F1L622801awjARKQxSPA8qTmKe2Z2nKJfqq8bRf8lv491xNg9emhM6D4giBXjKlXD03MoS_6yQmnLTTEzSMNxsyU/s1600/Stock+Filter_3782_image007.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9pIdXnGbWkPcsHEwDADVNPM_oPXhP-jen4VKQtoiUlPxYNt-tB36F1L622801awjARKQxSPA8qTmKe2Z2nKJfqq8bRf8lv491xNg9emhM6D4giBXjKlXD03MoS_6yQmnLTTEzSMNxsyU/s1600/Stock+Filter_3782_image007.png" /></a></div>
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Composition:</div>
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<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Company size > $100m</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Currently earnings positive</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Does not have problems with data metrics or forecasts (about 5 stocks removed)</li>
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The rating is based on a combination of value and quality. Quality is determined quantitatively based on factors such as:</div>
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<ul>
<li>Profitability</li>
<li>Outlook</li>
<li>Growth of company value</li>
<li>Liquidity</li>
<li>Debt levels</li>
<li>Share holder dilution</li>
<li>Free cash flow</li>
</ul>
This list does not take in to account individual company risks, qualitative factors, macro or company specific trends.<br />
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Right now, there are many companies which have a good combination of value and quality, whilst also paying a solid dividend yield. It is surprising how few are substantially over-priced. This fits within my theme that the markets should enjoy solid returns in 2012 - at least in the first half.</div>
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I may track 6 and 12 month performance figures to compare with this data series.</div>
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Stand-out companies:<br />
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<ul>
<li><b>Mt Gibson Iron</b></li>
<li><b>Silver Lake Resources</b></li>
<li><b>Troy Resources</b></li>
<li><b>Medusa Mining</b></li>
<li><b>Maca</b></li>
<li><b>Mastermyne Group</b></li>
<li><b>Decmil Group</b></li>
<li><b>Seek</b></li>
<li><b>Cash Converters</b></li>
<li><b>Computershare</b></li>
<li><b>K2 Asset Management</b></li>
<li><b>Seymour Whyte</b></li>
<li><b>Cabcharge Australia</b></li>
<li><b>Industrea</b></li>
<li><b>Sirtex Medical</b></li>
<li><b>Global Construction Services</b></li>
<li><b>McPherson's</b></li>
<li><b>Corporate Travel Management</b></li>
<li><b>Flight Centre</b></li>
<li><b>Reject Shop</b></li>
<li><b>Kathmandu Holdings</b></li>
<li><b>NRW Holdings</b></li>
<li><b>M2 Telecommunications Group</b></li>
<li><b>Automotive Holdings Group</b></li>
<li><b>Oakton</b></li>
<li><b>Mineral Resources</b></li>
<li><b>Rio Tinto</b></li>
<li><b>ASG Group</b></li>
<li><b>QBE Insurance Group</b></li>
<li><b>Slater & Gordon</b></li>
<li><b>Fantastic Holdings</b></li>
<li><b>TPG Telecom</b></li>
<li><b>Imdex</b></li>
<li><b>iiNET</b></li>
<li><b>BHP Billiton</b></li>
<li><b>Reece Australia</b></li>
<li><b>Woolworths</b></li>
<li><b>Breville Group</b></li>
<li><b>Iress Market Technology</b></li>
<li><b>DWS</b></li>
<li><b>Credit Corp Group</b></li>
<li><b>STW Communications Group</b></li>
<li><b>Gerard Lighting Group</b></li>
<li><b>GR Engineering Services</b></li>
<li><b>Sedgman</b></li>
<li><b>David Jones</b></li>
<li><b>Myer Holdings</b></li>
<li><b>Orica</b></li>
<li><b>Austin Engineering</b></li>
<li><b>Retail Food Group</b></li>
<li><b>Codan</b></li>
<li><b>GUD Holdings</b></li>
<li><b>SMS Management and Technology</b></li>
</ul>Macro Value Investor (Steve)http://www.blogger.com/profile/13965432869765365558noreply@blogger.com1