Wednesday, 12 June 2013

Tuesday, 11 June 2013

Wal-Mart (WMT) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Wal-Mart (WMT) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

United Technologies (UTX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

United Technologies (UTX) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Procter & Gamble (PG) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Procter & Gamble (PG) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Pfizer (PFE) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Pfizer (PFE) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Home Depot (HD) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Home Depot (HD) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Coca-Cola (KO) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Coca-Cola (KO) Value Dashboard

Walt Disney (DIS) Value Dashboard (NYSE)

Walt Disney DIS Value Analysis Dashboard

Monday, 3 June 2013

Aussie Banks Valuation


All the major Aussie banks (CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB) appear to have reached and surpassed full value. Without any changes to the underlying metrics and earnings momentum, we could see a reasonable price correction. Any deterioration in bank profits is likely to feed straight through to share price declines.

2012 ASX Forecast: Review



It took a bit longer to head above 5000 than expected, but the forecast made in Jan 2012 was very accurate.

ASX XJO Value Update - Downside Risk


Possible downside to 4500 or -8%.

Sunday, 2 June 2013

Dow Value Update 2013: Value is Priced In - 15% Correction Possible

In my 2012 equity outlook this is what I said:
"Fair value is trending up strongly, with the Dow Jones still appearing cheap, and is highly likely to indicate a continued equity market rally from here."   

This is the first update since early 2012.



All three metrics suggest that the Dow and, by association, the US equity markets are fully priced and have the potential for a correction. Whilst the current circumstances do not yet appear to be any where near 2008 levels, I would suggest that a 15% correction is definitely possible. This would imply a price target of just under 13,000 from the current level of 15,115. 

Timing is uncertain, but a move to between 13,000 [-14%] to 14,000 [-7.3%] is highly possible between now and the next three months.

Caution at this point.


Note that current value metrics are still being updated from 2012 and may be adjusted or improved.