With a large correction since September from over $8 per share to recent lows of $4.50 per share, Medusa's share price has taken a big hit. Excellent value at current prices. Potential break out from down-trend.
Market valuation using fundamental metrics. Forecast of equity index trends and stock evaluation.
How does your leading economic index relate to the leading economic index of Westpac released by Bill Evans today, 25th, which suggests a radical slow down in October to be reflected 6 months hence?
ReplyDeleteI am of the view that Australian indicators are not leading, but are instead lagging indicators. I don't see our economy being driven by local engines - I think they are global.
ReplyDeleteSo my thesis is that US leading indicators are a much better predictor of our equity markets. To me this makes sense. US demand influences European markets and Chinese exports. We are such a small economy that we have no influence on commodity prices, global trade or liquidity flows.
With time, I'll probably look to conduct in-depth comparative analysis and potentially look for an aggregated global indicator that fits our market a bit better.
So whilst I'm concerned about an Australian economic slow-down due to retail/manufacturing impacts on the back of high currency and credit slow-down, much of our equity markets are geared towards international factors. It is something to consider in more detail, however it has worked in the past, appears to work right now and also makes sense to me.
Thanks for the question - I'm always happy to have feedback.
Excellent graphs and charts color highlights and more a really nice blog.
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