Fair value range is defined by the value based on consensus earnings forecasts [12,937], and on earnings adjusted for leading economic indicators [12,966]. Currently the Dow Jones is sitting below the range at 12,098 (6th Dec). The most significant change has been an update on the economic data feeding through to the earnings indicator, which has increased to 12,966.
The average value appears to be at around 12950 for now – which is bullish. Whilst fair value looks to be higher than current levels, I continue with a thesis that we continue to experience a range-bound market. Earnings downgrades appear to be flattening off, whilst cash flow continues to be strong for now.
The market could go higher but caution is in order.
ReplyDelete