Thursday, 30 June 2011

ASX20 Update (XJO Proxy)

Interestingly enough, consensus earnings per share forecasts for 2011 and 2012 have lifted since last update.

Previous (23 June 2011):
- 2011 at $3.24
- 2012 at $3.83

Current (30 June 2011):
- 2011 at $3.28
- 2012 at $3.88

This increases the theoretical ASX target price to $47.33 from $46.63.

In other words, ASX 200 (XJO) target at 5,456 up from 5,348.

This is against the trend that I would have expected, so it will be interesting to watch earnings season. At some point, I'll also be looking to track EPS forecast changes in more detail.

Of course, should we not realise the increases to profitability that is being forecast, we are still looking at holding around 4,600 on the XJO.

On another note, I've noticed an interesting factor in the trend analysis for earnings tolerance at 10% over or under expectations. This may mean nothing, but is something I'll monitor.

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