Tuesday, 17 January 2012

ASX Fair Value Update 18 Jan 2012

Markets are turning bullish - Indicators show a long way to go

Very strong moves up seen in the S&P 200 (XJO) over the past month, looking increasingly like a new bullish up-trend.

MacroValue Economic Indicator
Reminder: This is a directional indicator and the fair value target is an indication of strength, but not a hard target.

Very strong economic signals showing through.


 MacroValue Consensus Fair Value

Consensus earnings expectations continue to support a rally. Given the economic signals are in place, it is highly likely that, in aggregate, expectations are met. Whilst this is a moving target, the first half of 2012 is shaping up nicely for a rally.


  1. There are so many chartists still bearish from yesterday's price data.

    They may be right- but frankly I don't see how the charting model itself can ever pick a turn in the market until it is well and truly consolidated.

    Ceteris Paribus

  2. I agree - and have no idea what will happen in the next week or two. The charts appear to be at a cross-roads.

    I've found someone who I think is eminently respectable and has similar views to me. http://wolfetrahan.com/research/sector/francois-trahan/

    Francois Trahan was the head investment strategist at Bear Stearns. He called the housing bubble and credit crisis, warning the investment bank in 2005 and 2006. He left the company in early 2007.

    He is very intelligent and spot on, in my view. My line of thinking is very similar. He looks at the economic indicators and has a great sector rotation approach. I recently purchased his book "The Era of Uncertainty: Global Investment Strategies for Inflation, Deflation, and the Middle Ground".

    Great interview of Trahan by Jim Puplava on Financial Sense Newshour: http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2012/01/12/francois-trahan/why-stocks-will-go-higher-in-first-half-of-2012

    May be of interest.

    1. Thanks for the lead. I will definitely have a look at these sources.

  3. My combination of macro themes, timing plus value strategy works very well. I usually only get in to trouble when I stay around too long where my view becomes too rigid. Latest idea was Mt Gibson Iron - on the theme of strong markets, iron ore price support and deep value. $1.18 purchase to $1.38 today (17%) - not a bad gain for one week.